What the tourism market will look like in 2020

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Tourism international market

The growth of international tourism International tourism is going through a decisive, constant and long-term growth trend. This evidence has already been in place since 1980 and it is expected that growth will be sustained also in the next twenty years. Considering the flows that have taken place, from 280 million passengers in 1980 it has gone up to 900 in 2010, and by 2030 passengers are expected to double, up to 1.8 billion per year (World Tourism Organization, 2011) . This implies an average expected growth rate in the fifty years (1980–2030) of 4% per year.
Furthermore, it should be noted that the growth just described has affected all the different areas of the globe, both in terms of inbound tourism and outbound tourism . By focusing on outbound tourism, it is still possible to find differentiated growth rates between the different areas.

In particular, with reference to the two most significant areas, namely Europe and the Asia-Pacific area, it is noted that the average expected growth rate of outbound travelers in the Asian region with reference to the period 1980-2030 is approximately double that observed in that European (6% per year vs. 3%)

International arrivals grew 4% in the first half of 2019

International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) grew 4% in January-June 2019 compared to the same period last year. Results are in line with historical trends.

Growth was led by the Middle East (+8%) and Asia and the Pacific (+6%), followed by Europe (+4%). Africa (+3%) and the Americas (+2%) enjoyed more moderate growth in the first half of 2019.

By subregions, the Caribbean (+11%) showed the highest growth, followed by North Africa (+9%), South Asia and North-East Asia (both +7%).

Confidence in global tourism performance remains positive yet cautious and with signs of moderate growth for the remainder of the year according to the latest UNWTO Confidence Index. So far, growth has been driven by a strong economy, affordable air travel, increased air connectivity and visa facilitation. Yet, weaker economic indicators, the prolonged uncertainty about Brexit, trade and technological tensions and rising geopolitical challenges, start to take a toll on business and consumer confidence.

The sustainability of tourism at an international level

The competitiveness of the tourism sector is closely linked to its sustainability, since the quality of tourist destinations depends to a considerable extent on their natural and cultural environment and on the attitudes of the local community.
Sustainable development and sustainability are currently an integral part of the debate on how tourism should use natural and social resources to obtain economic benefits.

This debate has led to the growing recognition that public and private tourism players must take into account the equitable distribution of maximized economic benefits, the minimization of socio-cultural impacts on hosts and tourists, as well as the protection and enhancement of the environment. natural through tourist activities. Globally, many leading global organizations have included sustainable tourism on their agenda, such as the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) or the Global Council for Sustainable Tourism (GSTC).

Similar initiatives, which are reflected in Europe, are developed and implemented by the institutions of the European Union, such as the European Commission and the European Environment Agency, or by international organizations such as the Council of Europe through the Institute European Cultural Routes .

All these activities seek to reduce the difficulty of applying the theoretical concept of sustainability in practice for a range of stakeholders, including the host community/destination, tourism businesses, policy makers (especially at local and regional level), non-governmental organizations, networks, clusters and tourists. In general, one of the main problems remains the complexity of the concept of sustainable tourism, which therefore continues to be a controversial concept .

The Brexit effect to the tourism

Everything suggests that the growth trend of the tourism sector at an international level will also be growing for 2020. At the local level, however, much will depend on the geopolitical fluidity that are developing in this final part of 2019. There is no doubt that Brexit, being taken for granted after the outcome of the political elections in Great Britain, will produce its effects both in UK than in the European Union.

There will inevitably be a drop in both the tourism sector and a little in all the sectors that provide for import export. The extent of this decline is difficult to quantify but will almost certainly be relevant for both economies.
In return, it is easy to think that there will be repercussions in all the other countries of the world. The world is now totally interconnected both politically and economically and financially. Therefore there are no variations of any kind in a country that does not affect all the others.


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